How Rare Are Knives, Skins, and Stickers?

Opening cases is an integral part of Counter-Strike 2 culture. The CS.MONEY Blog explores how CS2 cases differ from other loot boxes and what are the chances of pulling a knife from a case?

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How does the loot box mechanic in CS2 differ from other games?

Cases in CS2 are not exactly ordinary loot boxes. They differ from “surprise boxes” in other games in a few fundamental ways, namely:

• No drop chance manipulation.
• Dropped skins can be sold or bought, and not only on the Steam Market, but also on third-party platforms, such as our CS.MONEY Market.
• Each case contains a skin or sticker, no “consolation” drops.

Another feature – skin drop chances are fixed, revealed by Valve for the Chinese version of the game, and this data has been confirmed by the game community.

What are the chances of getting a knife or rare skins from a regular case?

A regular case, for example, the Kilowatt Case or Recoil Case, contains skins of five rarity types, one of which is a knife or a pair of gloves. The drop chances are distributed as follows:

• Mil-Spec – 79.9%
• Restricted – 16%
• Classified – 3.2%
• Covert – 0.64%
• Knife or gloves – 0.26%

These percentages mean that, on average, you need to open 400 cases to get a knife, “red” skins drop in 1 out of 150 cases, and something better than “blue” comes only in every fifth case.

What are the chances of getting rare skins from a souvenir package?

Сувенирные наборы, которые можно получить во время мажора, отличаются от обычных кейсов. В Souvenir packages, which you can get during a Major, differ from regular cases. They contain skins from the collection of a single map, and additionally – there are no knives or gloves, all skins are of souvenir quality and come with memorable tournament stickers.

Due to the absence of knives and the presence of lower-quality skins compared to regular cases, drop chances for souvenir packages are different:

• Consumer – 80%
• Industrial – 16%
• Mil-Spec – 3.2%
• Restricted – 0.64%
• Classified – 0.12%
• Covert – 0.026%

Let’s translate these percentages into understandable probabilities. 4 out of 5 souvenir packages contain low-tier skins, and the chances of pulling the rarest skins like the AWP Desert Hydra – are just 1 in 3900! That’s why such skins are extremely rare, and pulling a knife is ten times easier.

What are the chances of getting a rare sticker when opening a capsule?

Sticker capsules have the simplest “math.” Each capsule contains a sticker of one of 4 rarities. Drop chances are as follows:

• High Grade – 80%
• Remarkable – 16%
• Exotic – 3.2%
• Extraordinary – 0.64%

However, capsules have their own nuances. Capsules with team logos or autographs of Major tournament participants include dozens of stickers. The chance of getting the coveted gold sticker with Zywoo’s or donk’s autograph is extremely low! This, in turn, significantly affects the price. The rarest and most desirable stickers can cost tens or even hundreds of dollars.

Looking at the drop chances from CS2 cases, it’s easy to notice one thing – rare drops are truly rare. In practice, this means that it’s easier to buy skins than to pull them from a case. 400 cases for a knife means about $1000, and there’s no guarantee you’ll get the one you wanted.

Skins or knives are much easier and cheaper to buy directly from other players – on the CS.MONEY Market. It’s a platform that connects buyers and sellers. Thousands of new skins appear there daily, so you’ll definitely find what you need – from the rarest souvenir skins to budget masterpieces like the M4A4 Spider Lily. Head to the Market now and stock up!